Nazarenos 0-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 21 Sep 2025

Nazarenos
0-1 HT 0-0
Paços De Ferreira
📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2025/2026

Nazarenos vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
12.23
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
66%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.33
No
46%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
21%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
40%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
5%
+11.0pp
18%
Draw
16%
+2.0pp
66%
Away Win
79%
-13.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
39%
+14.9pp
46%
BTTS No
61%
-14.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nazarenos v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nazarenos EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 84%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -80% / -34%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
262 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 470 · 86%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Nazarenos 0-1 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nazarenos
0-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nazarenos vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira edged past Nazarenos 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Paços De Ferreira as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Nazarenos had 38% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 62%, shots finished 7-22.

What was the final score of Nazarenos vs Paços De Ferreira?

Nazarenos 0-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - Cup on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nazarenos vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Nazarenos 16%, draw 18%, Paços De Ferreira 66%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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