21/09/2025
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-2
2nd Score
2-1
Oriental Lisboa vs Fafe Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
13%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
24%
19%
Draw
25%
48%
Away Win
52%
46%
Under 2.5
48%
54%
Over 2.5
52%
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
49%
BTTS No
46%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Oriental Lisboa v Fafe — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Oriental Lisboa
EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY
Fafe
EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+30% /
+30%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-43%
/
–
47%
Ball Possession
53%
10
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
5
5
Corners
5
321 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
328 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Oriental Lisboa vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Fafe edged past Oriental Lisboa 1-0 away from home.
As we said in the preview, our model had Fafe as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
What was the final score of Oriental Lisboa vs Fafe?
Oriental Lisboa 0-1 Fafe in the Portugal - Cup on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Oriental Lisboa vs Fafe?
Before kick-off our model rated an Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Oriental Lisboa 33%, draw 19%, Fafe 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fafe) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Fafe)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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POK
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21 Sep 2025