U. Nogueirense 1-0 A. Moradal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 21 Sep 2025

U. Nogueirense
1-0 HT 1-0
A. Moradal
📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2025/2026

U. Nogueirense vs A. Moradal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.68
No
39%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-8.7pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.7pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.3pp
61%
BTTS Yes
56%
+5.8pp
39%
BTTS No
44%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

U. Nogueirense v A. Moradal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME U. Nogueirense EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY A. Moradal EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
405 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH U. Nogueirense vs A. Moradal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

U. Nogueirense edged past A. Moradal 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had U. Nogueirense as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of U. Nogueirense vs A. Moradal?

U. Nogueirense 1-0 A. Moradal in the Portugal - Cup on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for U. Nogueirense vs A. Moradal?

Before kick-off our model rated a U. Nogueirense win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split U. Nogueirense 51%, draw 26%, A. Moradal 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (U. Nogueirense) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (U. Nogueirense) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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