Lobos UPNFM 1-4 Genesis PN — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 21 Oct 2024

📅21/10/2024 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.75
Over 2.5
38%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.82
No
60%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
49%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.8pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.5pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
53%
+9.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
47%
-9.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-10.5pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Genesis PN EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.84/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.08
+27% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +37%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
274 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Genesis PN
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
10.08.2024 Genesis PN 3-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
29.04.2024 Genesis PN 1-0 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
05.03.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-0 HT 0-0 Genesis PN HON
18.10.2023 Genesis PN 1-0 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
20.08.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-0 HT 1-0 Genesis PN HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs Genesis PN
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genesis PN swept aside Lobos UPNFM 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lobos UPNFM at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Genesis PN led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 1.00 for Genesis PN.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs Genesis PN?

Lobos UPNFM 1-4 Genesis PN in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs Genesis PN?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lobos UPNFM win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 42%, draw 30%, Genesis PN 28%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lobos UPNFM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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