Genesis PN 1-0 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.62
Over 2.5
33%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
1.96
No
67%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
11%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.0pp
67%
Under 2.5
58%
+9.2pp
33%
Over 2.5
42%
-9.2pp
33%
BTTS Yes
47%
-13.9pp
67%
BTTS No
53%
+13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genesis PN EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 37%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.13/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/2.10
-17% / +100% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -46%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
289 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genesis PN
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
05.03.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-0 HT 0-0 Genesis PN HON
18.10.2023 Genesis PN 1-0 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
20.08.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-0 HT 1-0 Genesis PN HON
POST-MATCH Genesis PN vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genesis PN squeezed past Lobos UPNFM 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Genesis PN as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (67%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Genesis PN and 0.33 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Genesis PN vs Lobos UPNFM?

Genesis PN 1-0 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genesis PN vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genesis PN win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Genesis PN 42%, draw 25%, Lobos UPNFM 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genesis PN), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Genesis PN) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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