Marathon 2-1 Olancho — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.9pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+7.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-7.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.1pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Olancho EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
2.17/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.18
+25% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% / +44%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
407 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marathon
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Olancho
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
04.03.2024 Olancho Olancho 2-1 HT 2-0 Marathon Marathon HON
25.09.2023 Marathon Marathon 0-2 HT 0-2 Olancho Olancho HON
29.07.2023 Olancho Olancho 1-0 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
02.03.2023 Marathon Marathon 0-2 HT 0-0 Olancho Olancho HON
22.01.2023 Olancho Olancho 2-2 HT 1-2 Marathon Marathon HON
28.11.2022 Olancho Olancho 1-1 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
POST-MATCH Marathon vs Olancho
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marathon edged past Olancho 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Marathon as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olancho led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Marathon and 1.67 for Olancho.

What was the final score of Marathon vs Olancho?

Marathon 2-1 Olancho in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs Olancho?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Marathon 45%, draw 30%, Olancho 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marathon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marathon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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