Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Nov 2024

Bahia
1-2 HT 1-1
Palmeiras
📅21/11/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Palmeiras Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.09
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
9%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 31% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.56
1/2
6%
24.3
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
11%
6.87
X/2
14%
5.07
X/X
13%
5.07
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
20%
2.98
2/X
5%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.0pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Palmeiras — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 48%
-4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.35/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.10
+41% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +35%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
281 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 83%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
20.5 Crosses 21.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Bahia vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.26 xG 1.24
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
308 Passes 376
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.07.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
29.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
22.06.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
13.10.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
28.06.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.12.2020 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-0 HT 3-0 Bahia Bahia BR1

Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-2
AWAY Palmeiras
1.76 xG 0.53
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
390 Passes 262
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Bahia 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Bahia had 58% of the ball to Palmeiras's 42%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.76 to 0.53 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bahia.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bahia and 1.50 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Palmeiras?

Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bahia 33%, draw 26%, Palmeiras 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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