Gremio 2-2 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Nov 2024

📅21/11/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.2
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.75
6+ Goals
9%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.46
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
13%
4.21
X/2
7%
8.51
X/X
13%
4.69
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
12%
6.62
2/X
9%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.57/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.08
+21% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
336 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
17.5 Crosses 20.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Juventude
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.16 xG 1.07
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
474 Passes 308
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.07.2024 Juventude Juventude 3-0 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
10.02.2023 Juventude Juventude 2-3 HT 0-3 Gremio Gremio BRG1
14.02.2022 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BRG1
18.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 3-2 HT 2-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
01.07.2021 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
26.03.2021 Juventude Juventude 2-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BRG1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-2
AWAY Juventude
0.70 xG 1.60
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
394 Passes 277
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio and Juventude shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gremio at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 57% of the ball to Juventude's 43%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.70 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventude led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gremio and 2.00 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Juventude?

Gremio 2-2 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gremio 46%, draw 29%, Juventude 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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