Celaya 1-2 CD Tapatio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 21 Nov 2024

📅21/11/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.86
Over 2.5
56%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.88
No
42%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-11.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+8.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
50%
-6.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
50%
+6.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
49%
+9.2pp
42%
BTTS No
51%
-9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Tapatio EU Bookmakers 22%
+5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +14%
1.73/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.51
-4% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
1W-3D-2L
AWAY CD Tapatio
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
02.11.2024 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 1-1 HT 1-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
28.04.2024 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 2-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
25.04.2024 Celaya Celaya 4-3 HT 0-2 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
12.04.2024 Celaya Celaya 1-2 HT 0-1 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
11.08.2023 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 1-1 HT 1-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
04.02.2023 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 2-2 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs CD Tapatio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Tapatio nicked a narrow win over Celaya 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Celaya at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Tapatio led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Celaya and 1.83 for CD Tapatio.

What was the final score of Celaya vs CD Tapatio?

Celaya 1-2 CD Tapatio in the Mexico - Primera A on 21/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs CD Tapatio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Celaya 45%, draw 27%, CD Tapatio 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Celaya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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