Deportivo Ocotal 0-3 Export Sebaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 21 Nov 2024

📅21/11/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
31%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
13%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
37%
+8.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-6.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Ocotal EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Export Sebaco EU Bookmakers 40%
+15% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.30/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.65
-8% / +81% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
238 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Ocotal
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Export Sebaco
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2024 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 4-0 HT 4-0 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal NİK
25.04.2024 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal 3-0 HT 1-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
10.03.2024 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 2-3 HT 0-1 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal NİK
13.11.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal NİK
14.09.2023 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal 1-3 HT 0-2 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
14.04.2023 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal 0-0 HT 0-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
POST-MATCH Deportivo Ocotal vs Export Sebaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Export Sebaco cruised past Deportivo Ocotal 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Ocotal at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Export Sebaco led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Deportivo Ocotal and 2.00 for Export Sebaco.

What was the final score of Deportivo Ocotal vs Export Sebaco?

Deportivo Ocotal 0-3 Export Sebaco in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 21/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Ocotal vs Export Sebaco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Ocotal win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Ocotal 45%, draw 24%, Export Sebaco 31%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Ocotal) ✗ Under 2.5
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