Audace Cerignola 2-0 Crotone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 21 Nov 2025

📅21/11/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
44%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.69
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.01
6+ Goals
10%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 33% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
37%
-5.8pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.7pp
44%
Away Win
34%
+9.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Audace Cerignola EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Crotone EU Bookmakers 38%
+10% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -2%
1.41/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.59
+21% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -31%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
266 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Audace Cerignola
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Crotone
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2025 Crotone Crotone 2-1 HT 1-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
03.11.2024 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 1-1 HT 1-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
27.01.2024 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 4-2 HT 0-2 Crotone Crotone İTC
21.09.2023 Crotone Crotone 1-1 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
08.04.2023 Crotone Crotone 0-1 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
04.12.2022 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 0-1 HT 0-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Audace Cerignola
2-0
AWAY Crotone
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Audace Cerignola vs Crotone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Audace Cerignola got the better of Crotone 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Crotone at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Audace Cerignola had 38% of the ball to Crotone's 62%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Audace Cerignola and 1.17 for Crotone.

What was the final score of Audace Cerignola vs Crotone?

Audace Cerignola 2-0 Crotone in the Italy - Serie C on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Audace Cerignola vs Crotone?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Audace Cerignola 31%, draw 25%, Crotone 44%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Crotone), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Crotone) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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