Crotone 2-1 Audace Cerignola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
17%
4.49
6+ Goals
8%
25.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.37 — our 36% vs market 34.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
22%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
40%
Away Win
40%
+0.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.3pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crotone EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Audace Cerignola EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +17%
1.30/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.98
+18% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crotone
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Audace Cerignola
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 1-1 HT 1-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
27.01.2024 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 4-2 HT 0-2 Crotone Crotone İTC
21.09.2023 Crotone Crotone 1-1 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
08.04.2023 Crotone Crotone 0-1 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
04.12.2022 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 0-1 HT 0-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crotone
2-1
AWAY Audace Cerignola
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crotone vs Audace Cerignola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crotone squeezed past Audace Cerignola 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day Crotone made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crotone had 58% of the ball to Audace Cerignola's 42%, shots finished 11-4.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Audace Cerignola led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Crotone and 1.40 for Audace Cerignola.

What was the final score of Crotone vs Audace Cerignola?

Crotone 2-1 Audace Cerignola in the Italy - Serie C on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crotone vs Audace Cerignola?

Before kick-off our model rated an Audace Cerignola win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Crotone 31%, draw 29%, Audace Cerignola 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Audace Cerignola) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
16 Mar 2025
14:30 Atalanta II vs FeralpiSalo Analysis →
17:00 Lumezzane vs Renate Analysis →
17:00 Pianese vs Sassari Torres Analysis →
17:00 Foggia Calcio vs Cavese Analysis →
17:00 US Latina vs Juventus II Analysis →
17:00 Picerno vs SS Monopoli Analysis →