Corinthians 3-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Nov 2025

📅21/11/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.7
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.36
Over 2.5
43%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.33
No
48%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-2.7pp
30%
Draw
33%
-2.9pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
70%
-12.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
30%
+12.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
39%
+13.6pp
48%
BTTS No
61%
-13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.48/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.31
+13% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
22.5 Crosses 17.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.75 xG 1.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
349 Passes 404
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
20.07.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
29.09.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
16.06.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 2-2 HT 2-2 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
01.10.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 2-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
17.08.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
26.07.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
3-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
2.00 xG 0.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
265 Passes 314
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians saw off Sao Paulo 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Corinthians found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Corinthians had 46% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 54%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 2.00 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Corinthians and 2.00 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?

Corinthians 3-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 37%, draw 30%, Sao Paulo 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
21 Nov 2025
00:00 Bahia vs Fortaleza Analysis →
03:30 Ceara vs Internacional Analysis →