Bahia 2-3 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Nov 2025

Bahia
2-3 HT 0-2
Fortaleza
📅21/11/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Bahia vs Fortaleza Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
17%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
-0.3pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.9pp
17%
Away Win
18%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Fortaleza — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
1.62/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.57
-6% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +8%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 76%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
20.7 Crosses 15.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Bahia vs Fortaleza Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fortaleza
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.22 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
403 Passes 302
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.07.2025 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
22.09.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 4-1 HT 2-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
14.06.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
22.10.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
03.06.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
15.02.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-3 HT 0-3 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRCDN

Bahia 2-3 Fortaleza — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
2-3
AWAY Fortaleza
3.82 xG 1.97
71% Ball Possession 29%
24 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
463 Passes 142
89% Pass Accuracy 65%
60 Box Touches 21
38 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza nicked a narrow win over Bahia 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bahia at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bahia had 71% of the ball to Fortaleza's 29%, shots finished 24-11, expected goals 3.82 to 1.97 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bahia.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bahia and 1.33 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Fortaleza?

Bahia 2-3 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Bahia 61%, draw 22%, Fortaleza 17%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Bahia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Over 2.5
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