Sao Paulo 3-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Sep 2024

Sao Paulo
3-1 HT 1-0
Corinthians
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
29%
2.83
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.38
Over 2.5
40%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.29
No
56%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
1.93
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
17%
7.04
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.96
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.35
X/1
10%
4.85
X/2
10%
5.48
X/X
17%
3.22
2/1
11%
34.5
2/2
12%
4.68
2/X
6%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.9pp
29%
Draw
32%
-3.0pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
69%
-8.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
31%
+8.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.1pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sao Paulo v Corinthians — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.28/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.26
-5% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
20.2 Crosses 16.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Corinthians
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 0.69
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
471 Passes 326
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.06.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 2-2 HT 2-2 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
01.10.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 2-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
17.08.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
26.07.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
14.05.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-1 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
30.01.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-2 HT 0-2 Corinthians Corinthians BREPAU

Sao Paulo 3-1 Corinthians — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
3-1
AWAY Corinthians
2.97 xG 0.84
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
326 Passes 278
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 14
6 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo beat Corinthians 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Sao Paulo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 53% of the ball to Corinthians's 47%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 2.97 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.33 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?

Sao Paulo 3-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 40%, draw 29%, Corinthians 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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