Palmeiras 2-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.25
6+ Goals
10%
21.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.25
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.7
X/1
13%
3.77
X/2
8%
9.48
X/X
17%
4.48
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
11%
8.06
2/X
6%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.1pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +28%
1.68/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.23
+0% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
24.1 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.45 xG 0.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
275 Passes 365
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
18.06.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-4 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
20.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
10.08.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro LKU
03.08.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
29.05.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-1 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
29.09.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
2-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
2.60 xG 0.28
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
255 Passes 359
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 4
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras squeezed past Atletico Mineiro 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Palmeiras had 43% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 57%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 2.60 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Palmeiras and 0.50 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro?

Palmeiras 2-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 47%, draw 29%, Atletico Mineiro 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
29 Sep 2024
03:00 Botafogo vs Gremio Analysis →
17:00 Juventude vs Bragantino Analysis →
22:00 Atletico Goianiense vs Fluminense Analysis →
22:00 Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Analysis →
22:00 Fortaleza vs Cuiaba Analysis →