Botafogo 0-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Sep 2024

Botafogo
0-0 HT 0-0
Gremio
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Botafogo vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.86
Over 2.5
41%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.85
No
60%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
14.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 31% vs market 25.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.8
X/1
15%
3.81
X/2
12%
9.3
X/X
10%
5.15
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
9%
7.44
2/X
8%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.3pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
50%
+9.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
50%
-9.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
50%
-9.8pp
60%
BTTS No
50%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.47/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.51
+7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -10%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
418 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 75%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
22.1 Crosses 12.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Botafogo vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Gremio
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.30 xG 2.12
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
367 Passes 367
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.06.2024 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
10.11.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-4 HT 2-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
10.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
09.02.2021 Botafogo Botafogo 2-5 HT 0-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
15.10.2020 Gremio Gremio 3-1 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
27.10.2019 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1

Botafogo 0-0 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
0-0
AWAY Gremio
0.98 xG 0.71
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
419 Passes 227
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 9
29 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo and Gremio fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Botafogo had 63% of the ball to Gremio's 37%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 0.98 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Botafogo and 2.67 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Gremio?

Botafogo 0-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 49%, draw 24%, Gremio 27%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Botafogo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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