Fortaleza 1-0 Cuiaba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.59
Over 2.5
48%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.9
6+ Goals
11%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.33
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.85
X/1
18%
3.64
X/2
8%
8.96
X/X
10%
4.26
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
13%
8.01
2/X
8%
17.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.8pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +40%
1.65/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.21
-4% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / +70%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 79%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
23.4 Crosses 18.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Cuiaba
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.70 xG 1.49
59% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
394 Passes 269
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.06.2024 Cuiaba Cuiaba 5-0 HT 4-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
13.11.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 2-1 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
16.07.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-1 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
01.08.2022 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
11.04.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-1 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
07.12.2021 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-0
AWAY Cuiaba
0.77 xG 0.05
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
392 Passes 321
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Cuiaba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza squeezed past Cuiaba 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Fortaleza had 54% of the ball to Cuiaba's 46%, shots finished 15-2, expected goals 0.77 to 0.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cuiaba led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Fortaleza and 1.67 for Cuiaba.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Cuiaba?

Fortaleza 1-0 Cuiaba in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Cuiaba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 49%, draw 26%, Cuiaba 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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