Motagua 3-2 Olancho — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 21 Nov 2025

📅21/11/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
38%
3.45
Away
21%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.66
No
36%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.5pp
38%
Draw
26%
+12.9pp
21%
Away Win
26%
-5.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.6pp
64%
BTTS Yes
56%
+8.1pp
36%
BTTS No
44%
-8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Olancho EU Bookmakers 30%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.39/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.03
-10% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
388 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Olancho
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
10.08.2025 Olancho Olancho 3-1 HT 2-0 Motagua Motagua HON
13.03.2025 Motagua Motagua 1-0 HT 0-0 Olancho Olancho HON
26.01.2025 Olancho Olancho 2-1 HT 1-1 Motagua Motagua HON
04.11.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 1-1 Olancho Olancho HON
25.08.2024 Olancho Olancho 0-0 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
11.03.2024 Olancho Olancho 0-0 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Olancho
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua edged past Olancho 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (41% / 38% / 21%) promised a tight game; Motagua found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olancho led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Motagua and 1.17 for Olancho.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Olancho?

Motagua 3-2 Olancho in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 21/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Olancho?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Motagua 41%, draw 38%, Olancho 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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