Alfreton Town 2-1 Radcliffe Borough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
16.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 29% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
31%
Away Win
21%
+9.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Radcliffe Borough EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.77/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.58
-1% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
398 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
2-1
AWAY Radcliffe Borough
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Radcliffe Borough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town squeezed past Radcliffe Borough 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Alfreton Town as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 44% of the ball to Radcliffe Borough's 56%, shots finished 7-9.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Radcliffe Borough?

Alfreton Town 2-1 Radcliffe Borough in the England - Conference on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Radcliffe Borough?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 45%, draw 24%, Radcliffe Borough 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alfreton Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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