Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 21 Dec 2024

Aston Villa
2-1 HT 1-0
Manchester City
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.29
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
2.85
6+ Goals
12%
8.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.45
1/2
8%
23.4
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
7%
6.93
X/2
15%
5.18
X/X
11%
5.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
30.0
2/2
17%
2.95
2/X
7%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
31%
+4.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-3.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -16%
1.16/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.68
+18% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 82%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
18.2 Crosses 14.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Manchester City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.80 xG 2.32
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
258 Passes 568
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Box Touches 41
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.04.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 4-1 HT 2-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
06.12.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
12.02.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 3-1 HT 3-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
03.09.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
22.05.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 3-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
01.12.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-2 HT 0-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP

Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
2-1
AWAY Manchester City
1.67 xG 1.03
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
369 Passes 496
86% Pass Accuracy 92%
17 Box Touches 22
6 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa edged past Manchester City 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; Aston Villa found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Aston Villa had 44% of the ball to Manchester City's 56%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.67 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aston Villa and 2.17 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City in the England - Premier League on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 36%, draw 24%, Manchester City 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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