Lugo vs Ourense CF Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lugo v Ourense CF — Team-Based Signals
Lugo vs Ourense CF Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Lugo 2-1 Ourense CF — Actual Match Statistics
Lugo nicked a narrow win over Ourense CF 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lugo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lugo had 56% of the ball to Ourense CF's 44%, shots finished 11-6.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ourense CF led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lugo and 2.00 for Ourense CF.
What was the final score of Lugo vs Ourense CF?
Lugo 2-1 Ourense CF in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lugo vs Ourense CF?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lugo 46%, draw 29%, Ourense CF 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.