Lugo 2-1 Ourense CF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 21 Dec 2025

📅21/12/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.44
Over 2.5
40%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.33
No
52%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
1.97
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
6.12
6+ Goals
9%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
66%
-6.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
34%
+6.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
39%
+9.1pp
52%
BTTS No
61%
-9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugo EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.49/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.41
+3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
210 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.0 Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugo
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Ourense CF
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
29.03.2025 Lugo Lugo 0-2 HT 0-1 Ourense CF Ourense CF İS3
11.01.2025 Ourense CF Ourense CF 2-1 HT 0-1 Lugo Lugo İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugo
2-1
AWAY Ourense CF
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lugo vs Ourense CF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo nicked a narrow win over Ourense CF 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lugo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugo had 56% of the ball to Ourense CF's 44%, shots finished 11-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ourense CF led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lugo and 2.00 for Ourense CF.

What was the final score of Lugo vs Ourense CF?

Lugo 2-1 Ourense CF in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugo vs Ourense CF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lugo 46%, draw 29%, Ourense CF 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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