Qabala 1-2 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 21 Dec 2025

📅21/12/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
7.18
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
66%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
27%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
11%
+4.0pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.1pp
66%
Away Win
70%
-4.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Qabala EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 75%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
0.45/2.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.39/0.60
-28% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +13%
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
241 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Qabala
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Karabağ
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
26.09.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 1-0 Qabala Qabala AZERS
04.12.2024 Qabala Qabala 0-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
28.02.2024 Qabala Qabala 0-4 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
04.12.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 1-0 Qabala Qabala AZERS
25.09.2023 Qabala Qabala 1-2 HT 0-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
08.05.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 1-0 Qabala Qabala AZERS
POST-MATCH Qabala vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ nicked a narrow win over Qabala 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Qabala and 2.67 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Qabala vs Karabağ?

Qabala 1-2 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Qabala vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Qabala 15%, draw 19%, Karabağ 66%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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