Milan 1-0 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 22 Jan 2025

Milan
1-0 HT 1-0
Girona
📅22/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
53%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.1
Over
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.9
2-3
39%
1.82
4-5
23%
2.99
6+
13%
9.46
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.9 — our 25% vs market 19.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.98
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1
17%
4.2
X/2
8%
10.9
X/X
11%
5.74
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
9%
8.5
2/X
8%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Milan win — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
53%
Home Win
59%
-6.1pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona The Market 21%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
1.41/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.04
+52% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -61%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
392 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
11.3 Crosses 6.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-0
AWAY Girona
1.31 xG 1.02
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
344 Passes 481
87% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 21
9 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milan vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan squeezed past Girona 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Milan had 42% of the ball to Girona's 58%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.31 to 1.02.

What was the final score of Milan vs Girona?

Milan 1-0 Girona in the Champions League on 22/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Milan 53%, draw 24%, Girona 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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