Sparta Prag 0-1 Inter — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 22 Jan 2025

📅22/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.91
Draw
22%
4.62
Away Pick
54%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.29
Over
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.49
2-3
42%
1.88
4-5
22%
2.77
6+
13%
7.61
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.49 — our 23% vs market 16.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
12.8
1/2
6%
20.7
1/X
5%
21.2
X/1
6%
15.55
X/2
14%
3.87
X/X
11%
7.28
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
34%
1.6
2/X
6%
18.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Inter win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
24%
Home Win
14%
+10.6pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.4pp
54%
Away Win
68%
-14.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Prag The Market 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter The Market 72%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.30/2.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.40/0.66
-100% / -63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +150%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
298 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 504 · 86%
6.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.9
4.4 Crosses 19.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Prag
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Inter
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
292 Passes 422
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
08.12.2016 Inter Inter 2-1 HT 1-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag AVL
29.09.2016 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 3-1 HT 2-0 Inter Inter AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Prag
0-1
AWAY Inter
0.37 xG 0.88
30% Ball Possession 70%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
243 Passes 664
78% Pass Accuracy 91%
25 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sparta Prag vs Inter
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter squeezed past Sparta Prag 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Inter as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sparta Prag had 30% of the ball to Inter's 70%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.37 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sparta Prag and 1.50 for Inter.

What was the final score of Sparta Prag vs Inter?

Sparta Prag 0-1 Inter in the Champions League on 22/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Prag vs Inter?

Before kick-off our model rated an Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sparta Prag 24%, draw 22%, Inter 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Inter) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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