RB Leipzig 2-1 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 22 Jan 2025

📅22/01/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.33
Over
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.68
2-3
34%
1.91
4-5
27%
2.72
6+
16%
7.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.0
1/2
6%
22.55
1/X
9%
12.3
X/1
11%
6.57
X/2
18%
5.62
X/X
12%
5.53
2/1
5%
26.0
2/2
13%
3.15
2/X
5%
12.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-3.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+5.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-5.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.5pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP The Market 45%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.30/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/2.13
+18% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +27%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 80%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
17.4 Crosses 8.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2-1
AWAY Sporting CP
2.32 xG 0.92
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 9
381 Passes 414
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig squeezed past Sporting CP 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; RB Leipzig found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 47% of the ball to Sporting CP's 53%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 2.32 to 0.92 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold RB Leipzig's control.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Sporting CP?

RB Leipzig 2-1 Sporting CP in the Champions League on 22/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 37%, draw 26%, Sporting CP 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ŞMP More Champions League
22 Jan 2025
20:45 Shakhtar Donetsk vs Brest Analysis →
23:00 Real Madrid vs Salzburg Analysis →
23:00 Milan vs Girona Analysis →
23:00 Feyenoord vs Bayern Münih Analysis →
23:00 Arsenal vs Dinamo Zagreb Analysis →
23:00 Sparta Prag vs Inter Analysis →