Jubilo Iwata 1-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.84
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
26%
3.69
6+ Goals
11%
16.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+3.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 29%
+11% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+16% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jubilo Iwata
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.56 xG 1.79
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
287 Passes 462
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.12.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-0 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
11.05.2024 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-3 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
24.05.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
05.04.2023 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-2 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JLK
07.08.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-0 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
18.06.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-1 HT 3-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jubilo Iwata
1-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
65% Ball Possession 35%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
425 Passes 200
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jubilo Iwata vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jubilo Iwata nicked a narrow win over Sagan Tosu 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jubilo Iwata as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Jubilo Iwata had 65% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 35%, shots finished 7-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Jubilo Iwata and 1.83 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Jubilo Iwata vs Sagan Tosu?

Jubilo Iwata 1-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J2 League on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jubilo Iwata vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jubilo Iwata win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Jubilo Iwata 45%, draw 27%, Sagan Tosu 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP2 More Japan - J2 League
22 Feb 2025
08:00 Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu Analysis →
08:00 JEF United vs Kataller Toyama Analysis →