Sagan Tosu 3-0 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
3.0
6+ Goals
11%
9.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.55
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
12%
7.24
X/2
6%
5.98
X/X
11%
5.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
32.0
2/2
25%
3.46
2/X
7%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.0 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-2.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-12.3pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.32/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.91
+3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +29%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
18.7 Crosses 14.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.72 xG 1.58
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
443 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
11.05.2024 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 0-3 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
24.05.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
05.04.2023 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-2 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JLK
07.08.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-0 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
18.06.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-1 HT 3-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
19.10.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-2 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
3-0
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
2.15 xG 0.66
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
325 Passes 312
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 38
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu swept aside Jubilo Iwata 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 23% / 37% — and on the day Sagan Tosu made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 49% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 51%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 2.15 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.33 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Jubilo Iwata?

Sagan Tosu 3-0 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - J1 League on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 39%, draw 23%, Jubilo Iwata 37%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sagan Tosu), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sagan Tosu) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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