Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 22 Feb 2026

📅22/02/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-2.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.8pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.07/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.26
-33% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
22.9 Crosses 13.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.23 xG 0.83
34% Ball Possession 66%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
214 Passes 513
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
10.08.2025 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-3 HT 0-2 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
26.02.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-2
AWAY Gamba Osaka
2.36 xG 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 2
230 Passes 305
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
34 Box Touches 10
32 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka squeezed past Fagiano Okayama 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Gamba Osaka found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 46% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 54%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.36 to 0.67 — on chances, Fagiano Okayama could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.00 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Gamba Osaka?

Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 22/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 35%, draw 28%, Gamba Osaka 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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