Necaxa vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Necaxa v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Necaxa vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Necaxa
MEK
3-0
HT 1-0
Necaxa
MEK
Necaxa 0-3 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca ran out comfortable winners over Necaxa 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Necaxa had 46% of the ball to Toluca's 54%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 0.65 to 3.05.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Necaxa and 2.83 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Necaxa vs Toluca?
Necaxa 0-3 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 22/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 23%, draw 23%, Toluca 53%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.