Cruz Azul 2-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Feb 2026

📅22/02/2026 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
3.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.13
6+ Goals
10%
11.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.9pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.4pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.38/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.28
+6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 79%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
20.3 Crosses 15.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.09 xG 1.44
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
342 Passes 332
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2025 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-2 HT 1-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
28.11.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
31.08.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 1-2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
30.03.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.09.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
03.03.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 3-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
2-1
AWAY Guadalajara
0.65 xG 1.39
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
170 Passes 331
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 15
7 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul nicked a narrow win over Guadalajara 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (42% / 21% / 37%) promised a tight game; Cruz Azul found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 38% of the ball to Guadalajara's 62%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.65 to 1.39 — on chances, Guadalajara could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cruz Azul and 0.50 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara?

Cruz Azul 2-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 22/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 42%, draw 21%, Guadalajara 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
22 Feb 2026
02:00 Atlas vs Atletico San Luis Analysis →
04:00 Necaxa vs Toluca Analysis →
04:00 Leon vs Santos Laguna Analysis →
08:10 Tijuana vs Mazatlan Analysis →