Guadalajara 1-2 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒04:07 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
44%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 30% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
21%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.0pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.4pp
44%
Away Win
40%
+4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 43%
-12% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +22%
1.04/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.30
-38% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
265 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 78%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.4 Crosses 17.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.04
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 Passes 412
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.09.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
03.03.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 3-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
05.11.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
23.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.10.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
1-2
AWAY Cruz Azul
2.36 xG 0.75
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 1
360 Passes 196
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
25 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 4
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul edged past Guadalajara 2-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Guadalajara had 61% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 39%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 2.36 to 0.75 — on chances, Guadalajara could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Guadalajara and 1.33 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul?

Guadalajara 1-2 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 32%, draw 24%, Cruz Azul 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
31 Aug 2025
02:00 Leon vs Queretaro Analysis →
04:00 Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL Analysis →
06:05 Club America vs Pachuca Analysis →