Cruz Azul 1-0 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 26% vs market 23.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.0pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -7%
1.71/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.34
-9% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
19.0 Crosses 16.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.89 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
383 Passes 308
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 3-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
05.11.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
23.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.10.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
17.04.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
24.10.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
1-0
AWAY Guadalajara
1.99 xG 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
462 Passes 300
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul edged past Guadalajara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 58% of the ball to Guadalajara's 42%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 1.99 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.00 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara?

Cruz Azul 1-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 45%, draw 25%, Guadalajara 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Under 2.5
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