Guadalajara 0-1 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.53
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
4.28
6+ Goals
8%
22.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-0.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.5pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 43%
-11% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
0.97/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.25
-33% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
270 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
17.9 Crosses 17.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.90 xG 1.03
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 Passes 416
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
03.03.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 3-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
05.11.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
23.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.10.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
17.04.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
0-1
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.95 xG 0.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
383 Passes 307
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
29 Box Touches 14
53 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul edged past Guadalajara 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Cruz Azul found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Guadalajara had 56% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 44%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.95 to 0.50 — on chances, Guadalajara could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Guadalajara and 1.17 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul?

Guadalajara 0-1 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 34%, draw 27%, Cruz Azul 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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