Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Toluca v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toluca 3-2 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca found just enough to beat Pachuca 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (60%) came in.
The match data tells the story: possession split 51% to 49% in Toluca's favour, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.86 to 0.47 — on chances created, Toluca won this by more than the scoreboard admits.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.33 a game for Toluca against 2.17 for Pachuca.
Toluca vs Pachuca Result & Final Score
Toluca 3 - 2 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Toluca 56%, draw 23%, Pachuca 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.