Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-0
HT 2-0
Pachuca
MEK
1-2
HT 0-1
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 1-1
Toluca
MEK
1-5
HT 0-4
Pachuca
MEK
Toluca 3-2 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca edged past Pachuca 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, Toluca had 51% of the ball to Pachuca's 49%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.86 to 0.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Toluca's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Toluca and 2.17 for Pachuca.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Pachuca?
Toluca 3-2 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Pachuca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Toluca 52%, draw 23%, Pachuca 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.