Cruz Azul 3-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Dec 2025

📅01/12/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.45
6+ Goals
12%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 31% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.95
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
15%
5.04
X/2
10%
7.3
X/X
13%
4.54
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.28
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
45%
+2.5pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -1%
1.55/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.36
-11% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
20.3 Crosses 15.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.06 xG 1.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
364 Passes 331
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.11.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
31.08.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 1-2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
30.03.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.09.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
03.03.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 3-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
05.11.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
3-2
AWAY Guadalajara
1.09 xG 2.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
271 Passes 333
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul nicked a narrow win over Guadalajara 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 47% of the ball to Guadalajara's 53%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.09 to 2.25 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guadalajara.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cruz Azul and 0.33 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara?

Cruz Azul 3-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 01/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 47%, draw 25%, Guadalajara 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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