Arka Gdynia 2-1 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 22 Feb 2026

Arka Gdynia
2-1 HT 2-1
Katowice
📅22/02/2026 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Arka Gdynia vs Katowice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.71
Over 2.5
53%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.81
No
42%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.69
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
23%
3.85
6+ Goals
11%
17.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.45
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
29.0
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
16%
6.15
X/2
12%
5.2
X/X
10%
4.11
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
15%
3.43
2/X
8%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 11% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
39%
Away Win
39%
-0.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
55%
-7.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
45%
+7.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
51%
+6.5pp
42%
BTTS No
49%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arka Gdynia v Katowice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 43%
+19% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.16/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.08/1.40
+14% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +33%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
365 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
18.6 Crosses 14.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Arka Gdynia vs Katowice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arka Gdynia
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Katowice
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.59 xG 3.18
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
311 Passes 202
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 40
18 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.08.2025 Katowice Katowice 4-1 HT 2-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
26.05.2024 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-1 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
02.12.2023 Katowice Katowice 1-1 HT 0-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
01.04.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-2 HT 2-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
28.08.2022 Katowice Katowice 0-1 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
19.03.2022 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-2 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1

Arka Gdynia 2-1 Katowice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arka Gdynia
2-1
AWAY Katowice
1.48 xG 1.03
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
206 Passes 271
70% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arka Gdynia vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arka Gdynia squeezed past Katowice 2-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; Arka Gdynia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arka Gdynia had 44% of the ball to Katowice's 56%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.48 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Katowice led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.67 for Katowice.

What was the final score of Arka Gdynia vs Katowice?

Arka Gdynia 2-1 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 22/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arka Gdynia vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated an Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Arka Gdynia 35%, draw 26%, Katowice 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Katowice) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Katowice) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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