Martigues 2-0 Avranches — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 22 Mar 2024

📅22/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.37
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.03
Over 2.5
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.22 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.65
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.75
X/1
19%
3.4
X/2
6%
16.0
X/X
9%
6.52
2/1
11%
23.6
2/2
6%
13.3
2/X
5%
21.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
69%
-4.6pp
20%
Draw
19%
+0.3pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+4.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.8pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Martigues EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Avranches EU Bookmakers 15%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
2.35/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.08
+26% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -14%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
404 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Martigues
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Avranches
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.10.2023 Avranches Avranches 2-0 HT 1-0 Martigues Martigues FR3
17.03.2023 Martigues Martigues 3-0 HT 1-0 Avranches Avranches FR3
12.10.2022 Avranches Avranches 1-1 HT 1-1 Martigues Martigues FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Martigues
2-0
AWAY Avranches
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Martigues vs Avranches
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Martigues got the better of Avranches 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Martigues as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Martigues had 56% of the ball to Avranches's 44%, shots finished 14-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Martigues and 1.00 for Avranches.

What was the final score of Martigues vs Avranches?

Martigues 2-0 Avranches in the France - National League 1 on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Martigues vs Avranches?

Before kick-off our model rated a Martigues win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Martigues 64%, draw 20%, Avranches 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Martigues), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Martigues) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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