Kelty Hearts 1-1 Arbroath — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.75
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
46%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.99
2-3 Goals
45%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 28% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+3.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
46%
Away Win
52%
-6.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kelty Hearts EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Arbroath EU Bookmakers 56%
-6% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -1%
0.81/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/0.95
-33% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
272 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kelty Hearts
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Arbroath
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
25.02.2025 Arbroath Arbroath 2-1 HT 1-0 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
17.12.2024 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 3-2 HT 1-1 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
17.08.2024 Arbroath Arbroath 0-3 HT 0-0 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
24.07.2021 Arbroath Arbroath 3-2 HT 1-2 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İKLK
POST-MATCH Kelty Hearts vs Arbroath
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kelty Hearts and Arbroath couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Arbroath at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Kelty Hearts and 1.75 for Arbroath.

What was the final score of Kelty Hearts vs Arbroath?

Kelty Hearts 1-1 Arbroath in the Scotland - 1st Division on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kelty Hearts vs Arbroath?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arbroath win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kelty Hearts 26%, draw 28%, Arbroath 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arbroath), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arbroath) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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