Ayr United 1-1 Hamilton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.61
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.12
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.38 — our 27% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.05
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.0
X/1
17%
4.04
X/2
8%
10.5
X/X
9%
5.14
2/1
10%
23.4
2/2
8%
8.76
2/X
7%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-1.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.0pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+3.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamilton EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
2.00/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.74
+5% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
5.0 Crosses 2.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Hamilton
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
01.02.2025 Hamilton Hamilton 0-2 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
17.08.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 3-2 HT 1-2 Hamilton Hamilton İKCL
03.08.2024 Hamilton Hamilton 0-2 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
18.03.2023 Hamilton Hamilton 0-2 HT 0-2 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
07.01.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 1-0 HT 1-0 Hamilton Hamilton İKCL
11.11.2022 Hamilton Hamilton 2-3 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Hamilton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United and Hamilton shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ayr United at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ayr United had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Ayr United and 0.67 for Hamilton.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Hamilton?

Ayr United 1-1 Hamilton in the Scotland - Championship on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Hamilton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 57%, draw 22%, Hamilton 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ayr United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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