Port Vale 1-0 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 31% vs market 27.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.87
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.85
X/1
18%
3.81
X/2
14%
12.4
X/X
9%
5.22
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
5%
11.05
2/X
10%
19.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-11.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+9.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.0pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 18%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.38/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.60
+2% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
301 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 197 · 60%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
23.5 Crosses 16.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Morecambe
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.70 xG 0.75
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
310 Passes 200
70% Pass Accuracy 62%
19 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2024 Morecambe Morecambe 0-1 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
21.02.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 1-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
26.12.2022 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
10.04.2021 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
03.10.2020 Morecambe Morecambe 1-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
14.01.2020 Morecambe Morecambe 2-1 HT 2-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
1-0
AWAY Morecambe
0.88 xG 0.57
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
273 Passes 204
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
33 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Vale squeezed past Morecambe 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Port Vale as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Port Vale had 55% of the ball to Morecambe's 45%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 0.88 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Port Vale and 0.67 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Morecambe?

Port Vale 1-0 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 51%, draw 25%, Morecambe 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Port Vale), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Port Vale) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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