St. Pauli 1-2 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 22 Mar 2026

St. Pauli
1 - 2 HT 1 - 0
Freiburg
📅22/03/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

St. Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.48
Draw
34%
2.96
Away
32%
2.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.61
Over
40%
2.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.94
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.4
2-3
48%
1.73
4-5
16%
4.58
6+
3%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.9
1/2
2%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
14%
5.45
X/2
13%
5.69
X/X
23%
3.73
2/1
2%
33.5
2/2
17%
4.17
2/X
5%
13.25
Our Pick = the view of our model: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a bet.

St. Pauli v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME St. Pauli The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg The Market 37%
Bad Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Strong
1.02 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.26
1.16 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.48
Bad Attack Strength Weak
Great Defense Strength Great
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
324 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
19 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2

St. Pauli vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Freiburg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.75 xG 1.39
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
286 Passes 462
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.11.2025 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
15.02.2025 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
28.09.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 0-3 HT 0-2 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
19.10.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AFK
10.04.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 4-3 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
25.10.2015 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL2

St. Pauli 1-2 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
1 - 2
AWAY Freiburg
1.41 xG 2.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
346 Passes 382
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW St. Pauli vs Freiburg
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Freiburg edged past St. Pauli 2-1 away from home. From 1-0 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time.

Our pre-match split (34% / 34% / 32%) promised a tight game; Freiburg found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

Under the surface, Freiburg saw more of the ball, 51% to 49%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.41 to 2.22.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for St. Pauli against 1.50 for Freiburg.

St. Pauli vs Freiburg Result & Final Score

St. Pauli 1 - 2 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

St. Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 34%, draw 34%, Freiburg 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/34/32) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
22 Mar 2026
17:30 Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Analysis →
21:30 Augsburg vs Stuttgart Analysis →