St. Pauli 0-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.61
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
14%
5.25
X/2
12%
6.12
X/X
12%
3.97
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
12%
4.5
2/X
6%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
39%
+5.1pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.4pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.0pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +21%
0.98/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.48
-37% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +47%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 73%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.9 Crosses 15.0
0.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Freiburg
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.16 xG 1.63
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
252 Passes 478
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 31
5 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 0-3 HT 0-2 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
19.10.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AFK
10.04.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 4-3 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
25.10.2015 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL2
15.01.2011 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
21.08.2010 Freiburg Freiburg 1-3 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
0-1
AWAY Freiburg
0.17 xG 1.26
54% Ball Possession 46%
5 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
427 Passes 358
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg edged past St. Pauli 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was St. Pauli at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, St. Pauli had 54% of the ball to Freiburg's 46%, shots finished 5-5, expected goals 0.17 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for St. Pauli and 1.50 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Freiburg?

St. Pauli 0-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 44%, draw 26%, Freiburg 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (St. Pauli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2025
17:30 Stuttgart vs Wolfsburg Analysis →
17:30 Union Berlin vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →
17:30 Bochum vs Borussia Dortmund Analysis →
20:30 Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Münih Analysis →