St. Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
St. Pauli v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals
St. Pauli vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-1
St. Pauli
AFK
4-3
HT 2-0
St. Pauli
AL2
1-0
HT 0-0
Freiburg
AL2
2-2
HT 1-0
Freiburg
AL1
1-3
HT 0-0
St. Pauli
AL1
St. Pauli 0-1 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics
Freiburg edged past St. Pauli 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was St. Pauli at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, St. Pauli had 54% of the ball to Freiburg's 46%, shots finished 5-5, expected goals 0.17 to 1.26.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for St. Pauli and 1.50 for Freiburg.
What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Freiburg?
St. Pauli 0-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Freiburg?
Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 44%, draw 26%, Freiburg 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (St. Pauli) went the other way.