FK Sarajevo 1-0 Velez Mostar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League, 22 Mar 2026

📅22/03/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.19
No
50%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-4.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+4.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+8.2pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Sarajevo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Mostar EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.94/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.50
+32% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Sarajevo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Velez Mostar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.03.2026 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 4-1 HT 2-1 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSK
25.02.2026 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 0-1 HT 0-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSK
02.12.2025 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
20.09.2025 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 2-0 HT 1-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSN
08.03.2025 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
19.10.2024 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 4-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Sarajevo
1-0
AWAY Velez Mostar
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Sarajevo nicked a narrow win over Velez Mostar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FK Sarajevo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FK Sarajevo had 55% of the ball to Velez Mostar's 45%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FK Sarajevo and 0.83 for Velez Mostar.

What was the final score of FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar?

FK Sarajevo 1-0 Velez Mostar in the Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Sarajevo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FK Sarajevo 50%, draw 26%, Velez Mostar 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Sarajevo), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FK Sarajevo) ✓ Under 2.5
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BOSN More Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League
22 Mar 2026
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