Velez Mostar 4-1 FK Sarajevo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bosnia and Herzegovina - Cup, 11 Mar 2026

📅11/03/2026 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.8pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Mostar EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Sarajevo EU Bookmakers 37%
+45% / +45% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
4.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.29/0.00
+150% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -69% /
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Mostar
1W-2D-3L
AWAY FK Sarajevo
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2026 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 0-1 HT 0-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSK
02.12.2025 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
20.09.2025 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 2-0 HT 1-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSN
08.03.2025 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
19.10.2024 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 4-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSN
28.04.2024 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 3-0 HT 1-0 Velez Mostar Velez Mostar BOSN
POST-MATCH Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Mostar ran out comfortable winners over FK Sarajevo 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Velez Mostar made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Sarajevo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Velez Mostar and 1.50 for FK Sarajevo.

What was the final score of Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo?

Velez Mostar 4-1 FK Sarajevo in the Bosnia and Herzegovina - Cup on 11/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Mostar win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Velez Mostar 38%, draw 30%, FK Sarajevo 33%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Velez Mostar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Velez Mostar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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