Estoril 1-2 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 22 Mar 2026

📅22/03/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
2.1
Over
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.64
No
47%
2.12
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.89
2-3
39%
1.81
4-5
24%
2.98
6+
10%
9.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.26
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
10%
13.35
X/1
21%
4.43
X/2
7%
8.89
X/X
12%
5.44
2/1
7%
21.4
2/2
11%
6.57
2/X
5%
14.6
Value flag · 1/X at 13.35 — our 10% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Estoril The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave The Market 26%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Average Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.31 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.19
1.29 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.47
Strong Attackvs comparable teams Strong
Average Defensevs comparable teams Weak
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 76%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
13.4 Crosses 15.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.63 xG 1.23
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
353 Passes 385
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2025 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-4 HT 0-2 Estoril Estoril POR
22.02.2025 Estoril Estoril 2-1 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
21.09.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-2 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
31.01.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
20.08.2023 Estoril Estoril 2-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
13.02.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-2
AWAY Rio Ave
1.40 xG 1.89
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
11 Corners 7
366 Passes 287
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Estoril vs Rio Ave
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Rio Ave nicked a narrow win over Estoril 2-1 on the road. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Estoril at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 49% for over 2.5, 53% on both teams scoring. At 1.71 (~58%), the over-2.5 price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

By the numbers, possession split 55% to 45% in Estoril's favour, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.40 to 1.89.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Estoril against 1.00 for Rio Ave.

Estoril vs Rio Ave Result & Final Score

Estoril 1-2 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Estoril vs Rio Ave Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Estoril 52%, draw 26%, Rio Ave 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Estoril), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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