FC Nordsjaelland 3-2 Midtjylland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 22 Apr 2025

📅22/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.43
Over 2.5
58%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.4
2-3 Goals
37%
2.05
4-5 Goals
27%
2.76
6+ Goals
14%
6.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.29
1/2
5%
24.65
1/X
10%
12.45
X/1
15%
5.89
X/2
15%
6.44
X/X
10%
5.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.9
2/2
11%
3.78
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.5pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 39%
+6% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
1.57/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.61
+35% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
16.2 Crosses 17.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Midtjylland
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.73 xG 1.36
59% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
521 Passes 328
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2025 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
27.07.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-2 HT 2-2 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
20.05.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 3-3 HT 3-2 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
01.04.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-3 HT 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
12.11.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
27.08.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 3-0 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
3-2
AWAY Midtjylland
3.54 xG 1.35
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 19
11 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 7
585 Passes 237
91% Pass Accuracy 79%
57 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Nordsjaelland vs Midtjylland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Nordsjaelland nicked a narrow win over Midtjylland 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Nordsjaelland as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, FC Nordsjaelland had 68% of the ball to Midtjylland's 32%, shots finished 21-19, expected goals 3.54 to 1.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FC Nordsjaelland's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.83 for Midtjylland.

What was the final score of FC Nordsjaelland vs Midtjylland?

FC Nordsjaelland 3-2 Midtjylland in the Denmark - Süperlig on 22/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Nordsjaelland vs Midtjylland?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Nordsjaelland win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Nordsjaelland 43%, draw 26%, Midtjylland 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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