Östersunds FK 4-3 Gefle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 22 May 2024

📅22/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 27% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.3
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.2
X/2
7%
8.92
X/X
10%
5.08
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
13%
6.63
2/X
8%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.0pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Östersunds FK EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Gefle EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -13%
1.46/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.83
-12% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
452 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Östersunds FK
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Gefle
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
16.03.2024 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 1-0 Gefle Gefle HAZ
16.09.2023 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 2-2 HT 1-1 Gefle Gefle İSÇ2
22.07.2023 Gefle Gefle 2-2 HT 0-1 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ2
06.11.2016 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 2-4 HT 1-2 Gefle Gefle İSÇ
23.04.2016 Gefle Gefle 0-0 HT 0-0 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ
POST-MATCH Östersunds FK vs Gefle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Östersunds FK edged past Gefle 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Östersunds FK as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Östersunds FK and 1.60 for Gefle.

What was the final score of Östersunds FK vs Gefle?

Östersunds FK 4-3 Gefle in the Sweden - Superettan on 22/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Östersunds FK vs Gefle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Östersunds FK win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Östersunds FK 47%, draw 25%, Gefle 27%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Östersunds FK), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Östersunds FK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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