AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals
AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Heerenveen
HOL
1-1
HT 0-1
Heerenveen
HOL
0-2
HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar swept aside Heerenveen 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 43% of the ball to Heerenveen's 57%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 3.31 to 0.55.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.17 for Heerenveen.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen?
AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 22/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen?
Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 57%, draw 24%, Heerenveen 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.