Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Heerenveen
HOL
1-1
HT 0-1
Heerenveen
HOL
0-2
HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
2-0
HT 1-0
Heerenveen
HOL
Heerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics
Heerenveen got the better of AZ Alkmaar 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Heerenveen had 42% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 58%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 2.03 to 1.29.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Heerenveen and 3.17 for AZ Alkmaar.
What was the final score of Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 24%, draw 28%, AZ Alkmaar 49%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.